Post-earnings volatility prediction is critical for investors, with previous works often leveraging earnings call transcripts under the assumption that their rich semantics contribute significantly. To further investigate how transcripts impact volatility, we introduce DEC, a dataset featuring accurate volatility calculations enabled by the previously overlooked beforeAfterMarket attribute and dense ticker coverage. Unlike established benchmarks, where each ticker has only around two earnings, DEC provides 20 earnings records per ticker. Using DEC, we reveal that post-earnings volatility undergoes significant shifts, with each ticker displaying a distinct volatility distribution. To leverage historical post-earnings volatility and capture ticker-specific patterns, we propose two training-free baselines: Post-earnings Volatility (PEV) and Same-ticker Post-earnings Volatility (STPEV). These baselines surpass all transcripts-based models on DEC as well as on established benchmarks. Additionally, we demonstrate that current transcript representations predominantly capture ticker identity rather than offering financially meaningful insights specific to each earnings. This is evidenced by two key observations: earnings representations from the same ticker exhibit significantly higher similarity compared to those from different tickers, and predictions from transcript-based models show strong correlations with prior post-earnings volatility.

Volatility forecasting is essential for risk management and decision-making in financial markets. Traditional models like Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effectively capture volatility clustering but often fail to model complex, non-linear interdependencies between multiple indices. This paper proposes a novel approach using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to represent global financial markets as dynamic graphs. The Temporal Graph Attention Network (Temporal GAT) combines Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and Graph Attention Networks (GATs) to capture the temporal and structural dynamics of volatility spillovers. By utilizing correlation-based and volatility spillover indices, the Temporal GAT constructs directed graphs that enhance the accuracy of volatility predictions. Empirical results from a 15-year study of eight major global indices show that the Temporal GAT outperforms traditional GARCH models and other machine learning methods, particularly in short- to mid-term forecasts. The sensitivity and scenario-based analysis over a range of parameters and hyperparameters further demonstrate the significance of the proposed technique. Hence, this work highlights the potential of GNNs in modeling complex market behaviors, providing valuable insights for financial analysts and investors.

This study explores the prediction of high-frequency price changes using deep learning models. Although state-of-the-art methods perform well, their complexity impedes the understanding of successful predictions. We found that an inadequately defined target price process may render predictions meaningless by incorporating past information. The commonly used three-class problem in asset price prediction can generally be divided into volatility and directional prediction. When relying solely on the price process, directional prediction performance is not substantial. However, volume imbalance improves directional prediction performance.

Stock volatility prediction is an important task in the financial industry. Recent advancements in multimodal methodologies, which integrate both textual and auditory data, have demonstrated significant improvements in this domain, such as earnings calls (Earnings calls are public available and often involve the management team of a public company and interested parties to discuss the company's earnings). However, these multimodal methods have faced two drawbacks. First, they often fail to yield reliable models and overfit the data due to their absorption of stochastic information from the stock market. Moreover, using multimodal models to predict stock volatility suffers from gender bias and lacks an efficient way to eliminate such bias. To address these aforementioned problems, we use adversarial training to generate perturbations that simulate the inherent stochasticity and bias, by creating areas resistant to random information around the input space to improve model robustness and fairness. Our comprehensive experiments on two real-world financial audio datasets reveal that this method exceeds the performance of current state-of-the-art solution. This confirms the value of adversarial training in reducing stochasticity and bias for stock volatility prediction tasks.

Some time series in Nature have a very long memory (Robinson, 2003): fluid turbulence (Resagk et al., 2006), asset price volatility (Cont, 2001) and tick-by-tick events in financial markets (Challet and Stinchcombe, 2001; Lillo and Farmer, 2004). From a modelling point of view, this means that the current value of an observable of interest depends on the past by a convolution of itself with a long-tailed kernel. Deep learning tackles past dependence in time series with recurrent neural networks (RNNs). These networks are in essence moving averages of nonlinear functions of the inputs and learn the parameters of these averages and functions. Provided that they are sufficiently large, these networks can approximate long-tailed kernels in a satisfactory way, and are of course able to account for more complex problems than a simple linear convolution.

This study aims to compare multiple deep learning-based forecasters for the task of predicting volatility using multivariate data. The paper evaluates a range of models, starting from simpler and shallower ones and progressing to deeper and more complex architectures. Additionally, the performance of these models is compared against naive predictions and variations of classical GARCH models. The prediction of volatility for five assets, namely S&P500, NASDAQ100, gold, silver, and oil, is specifically addressed using GARCH models, Multi-Layer Perceptrons, Recurrent Neural Networks, Temporal Convolutional Networks, and the Temporal Fusion Transformer. In the majority of cases, the Temporal Fusion Transformer, followed by variants of the Temporal Convolutional Network, outperformed classical approaches and shallow networks. These experiments were repeated, and the differences observed between the competing models were found to be statistically significant, thus providing strong encouragement for their practical application.

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile compared to traditional financial markets. Hence, forecasting its volatility is crucial for risk management. In this paper, we investigate CryptoQuant data (e.g. on-chain analytics, exchange and miner data) and whale-alert tweets, and explore their relationship to Bitcoin's next-day volatility, with a focus on extreme volatility spikes. We propose a deep learning Synthesizer Transformer model for forecasting volatility. Our results show that the model outperforms existing state-of-the-art models when forecasting extreme volatility spikes for Bitcoin using CryptoQuant data as well as whale-alert tweets. We analysed our model with the Captum XAI library to investigate which features are most important. We also backtested our prediction results with different baseline trading strategies and the results show that we are able to minimize drawdown while keeping steady profits. Our findings underscore that the proposed method is a useful tool for forecasting extreme volatility movements in the Bitcoin market.

Financial forecasting has been an important and active area of machine learning research because of the challenges it presents and the potential rewards that even minor improvements in prediction accuracy or forecasting may entail. Traditionally, financial forecasting has heavily relied on quantitative indicators and metrics derived from structured financial statements. Earnings conference call data, including text and audio, is an important source of unstructured data that has been used for various prediction tasks using deep earning and related approaches. However, current deep learning-based methods are limited in the way that they deal with numeric data; numbers are typically treated as plain-text tokens without taking advantage of their underlying numeric structure. This paper describes a numeric-oriented hierarchical transformer model to predict stock returns, and financial risk using multi-modal aligned earnings calls data by taking advantage of the different categories of numbers (monetary, temporal, percentages etc.) and their magnitude. We present the results of a comprehensive evaluation of NumHTML against several state-of-the-art baselines using a real-world publicly available dataset. The results indicate that NumHTML significantly outperforms the current state-of-the-art across a variety of evaluation metrics and that it has the potential to offer significant financial gains in a practical trading context.

Reinforcement learning (RL) techniques have shown great success in quantitative investment tasks, such as portfolio management and algorithmic trading. Especially, intraday trading is one of the most profitable and risky tasks because of the intraday behaviors of the financial market that reflect billions of rapidly fluctuating values. However, it is hard to apply existing RL methods to intraday trading due to the following three limitations: 1) overlooking micro-level market information (e.g., limit order book); 2) only focusing on local price fluctuation and failing to capture the overall trend of the whole trading day; 3) neglecting the impact of market risk. To tackle these limitations, we propose DeepScalper, a deep reinforcement learning framework for intraday trading. Specifically, we adopt an encoder-decoder architecture to learn robust market embedding incorporating both macro-level and micro-level market information. Moreover, a novel hindsight reward function is designed to provide the agent a long-term horizon for capturing the overall price trend. In addition, we propose a risk-aware auxiliary task by predicting future volatility, which helps the agent take market risk into consideration while maximizing profit. Finally, extensive experiments on two stock index futures and four treasury bond futures demonstrate that DeepScalper achieves significant improvement against many state-of-the-art approaches.

Earnings call (EC), as a periodic teleconference of a publicly-traded company, has been extensively studied as an essential market indicator because of its high analytical value in corporate fundamentals. The recent emergence of deep learning techniques has shown great promise in creating automated pipelines to benefit the EC-supported financial applications. However, these methods presume all included contents to be informative without refining valuable semantics from long-text transcript and suffer from EC scarcity issue. Meanwhile, these black-box methods possess inherent difficulties in providing human-understandable explanations. To this end, in this paper, we propose a Multi-Domain Transformer-Based Counterfactual Augmentation, named MTCA, to address the above problems. Specifically, we first propose a transformer-based EC encoder to attentively quantify the task-inspired significance of critical EC content for market inference. Then, a multi-domain counterfactual learning framework is developed to evaluate the gradient-based variations after we perturb limited EC informative texts with plentiful cross-domain documents, enabling MTCA to perform unsupervised data augmentation. As a bonus, we discover a way to use non-training data as instance-based explanations for which we show the result with case studies. Extensive experiments on the real-world financial datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of interpretable MTCA for improving the volatility evaluation ability of the state-of-the-art by 14.2\% in accuracy.